The skies above the South China Sea have become a new front for potential conflict as the Philippines ramps up air patrols and airdrops near reefs also claimed by China, a Chinese think tank has warned.
The South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) also urged heightened vigilance in response to the “aerial provocations”, as it issued the note of caution on social media.
“As China strengthens its maritime control, the Philippines has exhausted its tactics and means of maritime infringement. Air incursions are becoming another major front for the Philippines to stir up trouble in the South China Sea,” the Beijing-based think tank said in an article posted on its WeChat account on Monday.
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The risks and unpredictability associated with aerial encounters, especially those of a confrontational nature, significantly exceeded encounters at sea, it said.
“Should the Philippines continue its air intrusions, China will be forced to take corresponding measures. Friction or even collisions in the air could have consequences more severe than ship collisions.”
Last month, the Philippines carried out military air patrols four times around the contested Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal. This had “exacerbated the situation in the South China Sea”, according to the SCSPI.
It said the Philippines was also airdropping supplies more frequently to personnel stationed on disputed atolls in the resource-rich, busy waterway, citing four such operations this year.
These included a supply mission last week for the BRP Teresa Magbanua, an advanced Philippine coastguard patrol vessel that has been anchored on the disputed Sabina Shoal since April.
The Spratlys feature, known as Xianbin Reef in China and Escoda Shoal in the Philippines, has seen more frequent and intense maritime encounters between the two sides in recent weeks.
The Philippines used a helicopter to deliver last week’s supplies, after Chinese vessels thwarted earlier attempts to deliver essentials by boat.
The Chinese coastguard said on Thursday that it had closely monitored the airdrop operation, while warning that “such risky behaviour is highly prone to causing unexpected incidents at sea or in the air”.
The SCSPI said Manila’s increasing patrols, airdrop operations and forays into airspace near Beijing-controlled islands were “deliberate intrusions” attempting to alter the status quo in the region.
The Philippines mostly used single-engine turboprop planes, it noted, warning that these were “less capable of handling complex maritime environments” and were prone to accidents when frequently deployed at sea.
According to the article, Philippine aircraft also frequently operate with their Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) transponders deactivated, significantly increasing safety risks.
Deactivating such transponders means real-time positioning of the aircraft is not shared with air traffic controllers and other aircraft, making it more difficult to maintain situational awareness and avoid potential conflicts or collisions.
Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jnr recently said that his country was considering deploying FA-50 light combat aircraft to escort patrol planes over the South China Sea.
Last month, Manila accused Beijing of carrying out dangerous aerial manoeuvres in the region, such as releasing flares in the flight path of a Philippine patrol aircraft during a routine mission near Scarborough Shoal, a rich fishing ground controlled and called Huangyan Island by China. The Philippines calls it Panatag Shoal.
The aerial face-offs come as maritime confrontations between China and the Philippines continue around disputed South China Sea reefs.
Frequent encounters over the past year have included allegations of ramming from both sides, and the use of water cannons and military lasers by the Chinese coastguard. The bulk of the damage has been sustained by Philippine vessels, including the Teresa Magbanua last week. Filipino crew have also been injured in some run-ins.
“The Philippines’ determination to alter the existing status quo has led to frequent maritime disputes and collisions with China. As the Philippines escalates its aerial provocations, the likelihood of dangerous aerial encounters is increasing, which warrants greater caution and vigilance,” the SCSPI said.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP’s Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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