(Bloomberg) — Mozambique’s ruling party took an early lead as votes were tallied from an election widely expected to extend its 49-year rule, with a new independent challenger running in second place after he rode a wave of discontent among youth in the gas-rich nation.
Most Read from Bloomberg
Daniel Chapo, a former provincial governor and the candidate of the ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique, had 70% support in 30 districts out of a total of 154, according to preliminary results of the Oct. 9 vote shared by the electoral commission. He needs more than 50% to win without going to a second round.
Venancio Mondlane, a former official-opposition lawmaker and banker who’s backed by the small Podemos party, had about 23% of votes tallied so far. He surged ahead of Ossufo Momade, president of the main opposition Mozambican National Resistance, or Renamo.
While the early vote count doesn’t necessarily reflect the final outcome, it suggests probable policy continuity in the southeast African nation of about 35 million.
Mondlane’s strong showing may enable him to mobilize a large support base to protest the results, which he’s already alleged have been tainted by irregularities. Observers have also flagged issues including possible ballot-box stuffing.
The early district tally included some areas in Gaza province, seen as a ruling party stronghold. For example, in Chigubo, Chapo won nearly 99% of the vote, with a 96% turnout. A similar picture emerged in other rural areas like Massingir, which borders neighboring South Africa’s Kruger National Park.
The electoral authorities have until Monday to announce the provincial tallies, and until Oct. 24 to release final national results. So far, they’ve announced Chapo won with 53.7% of the vote in Maputo city, and 65.8% in the northeastern Cabo Delgado province.
While Mondlane detailed various incidents, he’s yet to provide evidence.
The former lawmaker claimed last week that his team’s parallel count showed him on track for a landslide win, based on early tallies. He’d earlier implored young supporters to take to the streets to proclaim victory, and defend what he said was the will of the people.
Mozambique is one of the world’s poorest countries — almost three in four citizens lived on less than than $2.15 per day last year, according to the World Bank.
Young people face particular challenges. The average teacher-to-pupil ratio in elementary schools is 64. And one in three youths is without employment, education or training, according to the finance ministry.
The population is poorer than it was a decade ago, in spite of massive natural gas discoveries, and many voters have become disillusioned. An Afrobarometer survey published in July showed support for democracy has plunged to less than 50%, making Mozambique one of four African nations where a minority now favor the system.
Mondlane made a name for himself in Mozambique’s municipal elections in 2023, when he unsuccessfully stood as Renamo’s candidate for mayor of Maputo, the capital. He claimed he only lost because of fraud, and led large protests against the results.
He tried to challenge Momade as leader of the opposition in May, but the party blocked him. Mondlane then quit the party that won less than 22% in the 2019 elections with Momade at the helm.
During his campaign events Mondlane drew large crowds of young people in a nation where the median age is about 17.
Whoever is declared the winner will in January take over from President Filipe Nyusi, who’ll relinquish power after completing the legal limit of two five-year terms.
(Updates with voter turnout detail in the 6th paragraph)
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
