(Bloomberg) — Moldovan President Maia Sandu was on track to win the first round of Sunday’s elections, but a key referendum on joining the European Union remained too close to call in a sign of challenges the country will face in prying itself from Russia’s grip.
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Sandu secured about 42% support, the most among a group of 11 contenders, according to preliminary results from the Central Electoral Commission in the capital Chisinau. Alexandr Stoianoglo, a pro-Russian candidate and former prosecutor, came in second with about 26%. The runoff is set for Nov. 3.
The result of the key referendum that aims to enshrine a long-term goal of EU membership into the country’s constitution remained too close too call with 49.9% support after some 98% of votes counted. Uncounted ballots from voters from abroad, who tend to back EU accession, may still affect the final result due in the coming hours.
The stakes are high in the former Soviet republic as the pro-EU government faced what it called an unprecedented Russian effort to thwart the vote in a coordinated campaign. Sandu aims to steer the country into the EU by the end of the decade. A failure of the referendum could complicate her European ambitions, even if the vote isn’t binding.
“Moldova has faced an unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy, both today and in recent months,” Sandu said during the early hours on Monday morning. “We have clear evidence that criminal groups aimed to buy 300,000 votes – a fraud of unprecedented scale,” she added.
One of Europe’s poorest nations, Moldova began EU accession talks this year after securing candidacy status alongside Ukraine in 2022. Sandu’s government has pledged to overhaul the nation’s justice system and bolster the economy to become a member by 2030.
Disruption Attempts
But Russia, which has dominated Moldova’s energy resources and political system since the collapse of the Soviet Union, has sought to block the country’s Western path. With the US and EU accusing Moscow of meddling in the elections, the chief Moldovan negotiator with the EU last week said Moscow had pumped some €100 million ($109 million) trying to disrupt the votes.
The election commission said voting had taken place without major disruption. Still, police in the country reported incidents, including efforts to transport or bribe voters, photographing ballots, intimidation and scuffling.
The Kremlin “categorically rejects” allegations that it’s interfering in Moldova’s electoral process, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last week, according to the state-run Tass news service.
Mihai Mogaldea, deputy director of the Institute for European Policy and Reforms, said he was confident that votes from Moldovans casting ballots abroad would give the EU referendum a majority.
Sandu, a 52-year-old former World Bank official, has led Moldova since 2020 with an agenda to extricate the country from Moscow’s orbit and integrate it into the West. Polls show she would be favored to defeat Stoianoglo in the second round on Nov. 3.
A procession of EU leaders had visited Chisinau in recent weeks, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz in August and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week. The commission chief announced the allocation of a record €1.8 billion to buoy Moldova’s economy.
The campaign has already resulted in a shift for the country wedged between Romania, an EU member, and Ukraine. While most of its biggest trading partner a decade ago was Russia, some 70% of its exports — mostly fruit and wine — now go to the EU.
But Moscow still wields influence. Although the EU has helped the country restore energy supplies cut off by the Kremlin, Russian troops have a presence in the breakaway region of Transnistria. Gagauzia, an autonomous region to the south of Chisinau, also supports Russia.
The electoral stakes will also rise even further going into next year, when Moldova holds a general election. In that contest, Sandu’s pro-European party may have tougher competition than in the presidential race.
–With assistance from Irina Vilcu.
(Updates with preliminary results from first paragraph.)
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