(Bloomberg) — Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party may lose its outright majority in the lower house of parliament for the first time since 2009 in this month’s election while keeping control of the chamber with the help of its coalition partner, major Japanese media predicted Thursday.
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The Mainichi newspaper forecast the LDP to win between 203 and 250 seats in the lower house, the more powerful of the two chambers of parliament, leaving open the possibility that the party will fall short of the 233 seats needed for a majority for the first time since it lost power in a 2009 election.
Based on phone surveys of voters on Oct. 15 and 16, with around 190,000 responses, the Mainichi also forecast that coalition partner Komeito would win 24 to 29 seats, down from its current share of 32 seats.
The Yomiuri newspaper forecast the coalition would win a majority based on a similar survey. It reported that around 100 LDP candidates in the election were in a strong position to win their seats, and 120 were in close races. The Nikkei newspaper reported that the LDP may fall short of a majority by itself.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has set a target of securing a majority with the help of Komeito in an acknowledgment that the LDP is likely to lose seats in the Oct. 27 election. Public support for the LDP has taken a beating following revelations beginning last year that members of the party were secretly lining their pockets with funds from supporters.
Ishiba, who was installed as party leader last month, has moved to tackle the scandal by barring the 12 lawmakers most deeply implicated in the affair from representing the party in the election. Ishiba called the national vote soon after becoming prime minister in an attempt to turn his personal popularity with the public into a mandate to rule.
If the LDP loses its outright majority in the election, Ishiba would likely survive as leader but may be forced to pay more heed to policy preferences from Komeito, which has its roots in a lay Buddhist organization. Ishiba, a former defense minister, is a strong advocate of increased defense spending and has floated the idea of forming an Asian version of NATO with allies in the Asia-Pacific region.
Komeito hasn’t opposed increased defense spending but it has sought to impose limits on the use of military force, which may further temper government policy.
Recent polls show public support for Ishiba’s government at around 40%, low by historical standards for a new administration, but a rebound from support levels of around 20% for Ishiba’s predecessor Fumio Kishida before he left office. The only time the LDP has lost a lower house election was in 2009, when it won only 119 seats.
Ishiba has pledged continuity with the Kishida administration’s economic focus on decisively ending deflation and raising wages. Earlier this month, the prime minister instructed his cabinet to draw up a package of economic measures aimed at reducing the impact of high prices and supporting growth, including cash handouts for low-income households.
A government spokesman said Wednesday that the upcoming package would be bigger than last year’s. Measures unveiled last autumn by Kishida were funded by a ¥13 trillion ($86.9 billion) extra budget.
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