Hadley’s view
Don’t expect Gulf governments to stop Israel’s ruthless campaign to root out Iran’s proxies.
As Israel unilaterally upends the balance of power in the Middle East, Gulf countries will watch and wait from the sidelines, ready to re-engage if a new order actually emerges.
That’s because Israel’s campaign to eliminate enemies of the state — Hamas and Hezbollah — aligns with the interest of Gulf governments. They, too, are committed to eliminating Iran’s proxies in the region. Despite horrific loss of life in Gaza and a rising death toll in Lebanon, the Abraham Accords remain intact, and Saudi Arabia continues to work towards normalization of ties with Israel, collecting security guarantees from the US along the way.
Gulf governments spent years funneling money to various Lebanese political parties, governments, and aid groups with nothing to show for it. The country’s inability to effectively govern itself has been exploited internally and externally for years, creating a vortex of wasted time, talent, and money that Gulf governments don’t see much point in perpetuating: One Gulf official recently likened the previous policy of patronage in places like Lebanon to lighting money on fire, just to enjoy the flames.
Back in 2019, Saad Hariri, a former Lebanese prime minister with deep Saudi ties, told me his compatriots were their own worst enemy. Then, he was leader of a state on the verge of economic collapse, custodian of a country whose banking system was rigged. Lenders financed post-war reconstruction, but politicians never implemented economic reforms needed to keep it stable. After a prolonged period of high interest rates, banks collapsed, wiping out savings.
With the currency losing over 90% of its value, Lebanon was then hit repeatedly by a series of crises — economic, humanitarian, and security, amongst them the explosion of Beirut’s port. In the last few years, the only people that have been doing well were those with fresh dollars, and that is what Iran’s proxy in Lebanon could provide. Despite a crippled state, Hezbollah and its followers have been enjoying a prolonged period of strength, calm, and growth. For years I’ve listened as members of every sect — Muslims, Christians, and Druze — condemned Nasrallah, openly calling on Israel to take him out.
But now that the deed is done, the price of killing the Hezbollah commander may be too much for most to bear. In an interview last week at his Beirut compound, longtime Druze leader Walid Joumblatt told me those who continued to shout for a swift Israeli intervention should be careful what they wish for.
When I spoke to him, the 75-year-old, whose political survival skills are legendary, told me he believes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to change the whole Middle Eastern order, potentially resulting in total chaos.
History has shown there is no upside to Gulf involvement. The region’s rulers may be happy to return and rebuild what Israel destroys in Lebanon and Gaza, as long as this “new order” emerges. Until that happens, the Gulf is resting on a lesson about throwing good money after bad, and will be content to abhor the method without engaging in the madness.
