The latest China-brokered truce in Myanmar‘s civil war is likely to hold for now but lasting peace may still be a pipe dream, according to observers.
Myanmar’s military government and a major northeastern ethnic rebel group agreed to a ceasefire this month in the Chinese border city of Kunming – the second such pact to be signed there in just over a year.
The agreement between the incumbent junta and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) took effect on January 18, China’s foreign ministry announced last Monday.
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The MNDAA, made up of the ethnic Chinese Kokang minority, is part of Myanmar’s “Three Brotherhood Alliance” rebel coalition.
China shares a 2,000km (1,242-mile) border with Myanmar, and shares close ties with both the junta and rebel groups. Beijing has been deeply involved in mediation as the fighting impacts border stability and disrupts trade, and puts its substantial infrastructure investment in Myanmar at risk.
In early January last year, the two sides signed their first ceasefire in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan – the southwestern Chinese province bordering Myanmar. But the deal fell apart within six months.
However, observers said this month’s truce was likely to last longer, citing stronger measures taken by Beijing and a much weakened junta.
Xu Peng, a postdoctoral researcher at the SOAS University of London, highlighted China’s move in October to seal the border and suspend key exports to rebel-held areas in the northeast.
“This has had a big impact on the survival of the armed forces of ethnic minorities that relied heavily on the border economy,” Peng said. “China has exerted more pressure on this ceasefire agreement, and so it’s going to be more difficult to break it.”
China reopened all its border crossings in MNDAA-controlled areas after the truce was signed, according to Burma News International.
According to Zhuang Guotu, director of the Southeast Asian Studies Centre at Xiamen University, the junta government has been greatly undermined by the different armed forces.
“Unlike last year, the government army is very weak now,” Zhuang said. “There are at least four quite powerful forces fighting at the same time against the Burmese military government.”
Myanmar’s ethnic groups have been fighting for autonomy on and off for decades, but the latest escalation dates back to February 2021, when the junta overthrew an elected civilian government and imposed emergency rule.
The coup triggered widespread protests that later spawned an armed revolt, with vast swathes along the China border now under rebel control.
The opposition groups include the Kachin Independence Army, which is moving south to fight the incumbent government, and the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which has overrun dozens of military outposts and taken control of several towns in the north near the border with China since 2023.
Zhuang noted that northern Myanmar relied heavily on China to develop its communications, energy, and finance, which would make it more costly to break the China-facilitated ceasefire deal.
“Those who want to sabotage don’t have the ability to sabotage [the ceasefire agreement], and those who have the ability to sabotage don’t dare to do so,” Zhuang said. “That’s why this agreement can last for a longer period of time.”
However, despite optimism over the ceasefire, Peng cautioned that China’s influence was still limited in the neighbouring country. The agreement might have brought only temporary peace as fundamental trust among the various forces in Myanmar was lacking.
“Ceasefire and conflict have become a symbiotic relationship embedded in the country’s DNA,” she said. “Sometimes conflict is the norm, while ceasefires are the exception.”
China’s foreign ministry said last week that Beijing would actively promote negotiations and provide support to the peace process in northern Myanmar.
“It is hoped that the parties will maintain the momentum of the ceasefire and peace talks, effectively implement the consensus reached, take the initiative to de-escalate the situation on the ground, and further resolve the relevant issues through dialogue,” ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said.
Since the 2021 coup, junta chief General Min Aung Hlaing has repeatedly promised an election. The junta alleges that the 2020 poll was riddled with widespread voter fraud, and has promised a free and fair election this year.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP’s Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2025 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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