Chinese tech firms entered a brave new world in 2020 as the US began restricting access to advanced semiconductor technologies. Those limitations have only been strengthened in recent years, forcing local manufactures like SMIC to get creative. Despite some concern that China would quickly work around the restrictions, the head of toolmaker ASML says China’s chip industry is stuck 10 to 15 years in the past.
The most advanced sub-5nm silicon nodes require the latest EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography tools like the one above, but Chinese chipmakers are stuck with DUV (deep ultraviolet) lithography. ASML is the leading manufacturer of these tools, so it was an early target of US trade restrictions.
ASML is a Dutch company, but the US government successfully lobbied to have limits imposed on what it could ship to China beginning in 2020. The Netherlands has agreed to further restrictions in recent years, making it difficult for Chinese firms to replace the chipmaking equipment they already have. According to a new interview with ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet, a lack of EUV systems in China all but assures it will struggle to keep up with the West.
“By banning the export of EUV, China will lag 10 to 15 years behind the West,” Fouquet told Dutch publisher NRC. Until recently, ASML was still permitted to sell DUV systems like the Twinscan NXT:2000i. SMIC has modified these devices to produce 7nm chips, and some reports have claimed 5nm is possible. Huawei, previously at the apex of the international smartphone market, has been forced to make do with SMIC’s 7nm chips that hamper performance of otherwise cutting edge devices like the Mate 70.
SMIC chip
Credit: SMIC
With no political forces in the US interested in loosening restrictions, it’s unlikely ASML will be able to export any EUV systems to China. This has led the Chinese government to pursue a domestic version of the technology, but it has a long road ahead. It took ASML 20 years to make the advances that power EUV lithography, and while some of that work is now openly available, Fouquet believes 10 to 15 years is an optimistic estimate for China to catch up to current EUV capabilities. By then, the ASML may have fully transitioned to High-NA EUV lithography.
The US is still pushing ASML and the Dutch government to further clamp down, halting repairs and maintenance of DUV machinery in China. However, ASML wants to remain in control of its equipment. If it fully abandons the Chinese market, SMIC and others could feel emboldened to reverse engineer ASML tech, and there is some concern that China could begin building its own DUV tools in much less than 10-15 years. That would boost domestic chip production and untether Chinese foundries from a key Western company.
