(Bloomberg) — India’s northern-most region of Jammu and Kashmir concludes local elections on Tuesday as concerns mount of an uncertain outcome that may delay economic progress in the restive province.
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The only Muslim-majority region in Hindu-dominated India held three phases of elections beginning from Sept. 18. About 8.7 million registered voters are picking candidates for 90 assembly seats. The party with half the seats can form the government and choose its chief minister, although it’s more likely a group of parties will need to form a governing coalition.
Results will be announced on Oct. 8 alongside the outcome of local elections in the northern state of Haryana.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is facing stiff competition from regional groups in Jammu & Kashmir, which have typically governed there, and the Indian National Congress, the country’s main opposition party.
The Congress party has allied with Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, one of the main regional groups, to keep the BJP out. They are campaigning on a pledge to restore statehood after Modi’s government stripped the region of its semi-autonomy in 2019 and removed constitutional guarantees that gave residents special rights. Since then, Jammu and Kashmir has been directly controlled by the federal government in New Delhi.
Another major regional party, Jammu & Kashmir People’s Democratic Party, suggests the legislature is heading for a hung assembly, with no single party or coalition having enough support to govern.
“This election in J&K has left most political analysts perplexed,” Iltija Mufti, daughter of PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti, a former ally of the BJP, said in a post on X. “No one can quite predict if at all what permutations & combinations will make the majority mark or will it be another spell of an apathetic central rule.”
Iltija said in an interview last month that her party is open to working with rivals to block the BJP from forming a local government.
Prospects of a hung assembly or long-drawn coalition talks may further delay progress to the region. The Kashmir valley sits on the edge of a disputed territory with Pakistan and has seen three wars and several skirmishes over the years. As a result, the region hasn’t seen the kind of development and investment the rest of India has experienced.
A non-BJP government in the region, which is still ultimately controlled by the federal government in New Delhi, may continue to be hamstrung in making policy.
An arrangement with various players “doesn’t add up to the stability” in the region, said Rasheed Kidwai, a political analyst and author on Indian politics. Regional parties want a restoration of statehood, and if they win “for the next five years, we are going to see a confrontation between New Delhi and Srinagar,” he said.
The BJP is contesting 62 out of the 90 seats up for grabs and is leaning on other regional parties and independent candidates to boost its support in the assembly. The party’s campaign has focused on pledges to create 500,000 jobs, bringing in investments, and giving handouts like free laptops and stipends to students.
Usually an energetic campaigner for the party in state elections, Modi has held just one rally in Kashmir’s capital city of Srinagar. The BJP has concentrated its campaigning in the Hindu-dominant Jammu area, where 43 seats are in contention.
The Congress party and its allies are contesting all 90 seats in contention for the assembly.
The latest turnout figure in the final phase of the elections was about 66% and the previous two phases averaged about 60%, higher than in earlier polls, a sign that voters may be motivated by the message of statehood. While the BJP has pledged it will restore Jammu and Kashmir to a state from a union territory, it’s stalled over the years.
“The decisions made by New Delhi in 2019 are a major focus of the election campaign and led to increased participation in the elections,” said Ayjaz Wani, fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
(Updates with latest voter turnout figure in fifteenth paragraph)
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