Germany should take greater account of available jobs when deciding how to distribute asylum-seeking migrants to different areas of the country, a leading economic think tank proposed on Friday.
Such a policy would make integration of new arrivals easier, said ifo Institute expert Panu Poutvaara, pointing to data showing a clear link between local unemployment rates and future prospects for newly arrived refugees.
Whether asylum seekers find a job plays an important role in whether they successfully integrate in Germany – and the situation on the local labour market is also important.
“If the unemployment rate is one percentage point higher in the district where the initial accommodation is located, this means that asylum seekers are five percentage points less likely to take up employment in the medium term,” said Poutvaara.
This means that initial accommodation is “crucial for successful integration,” he said.
However, the decision on the place of accommodation after arrival in Germany is like “a lottery procedure that is potentially detrimental to successful integration,” he added.
Poutvaara said his research has also identified the proportion of far-right voters in the district as another aspect that is important for the success of integration.
Every percentage point higher, he said, is associated with a three-point decrease in the likelihood of asylum seekers finding a job or training.
“Failed integration leads to high follow-up costs,” he said. “It is better for the refugees and for Germany if they find a job and integrate well.”
Until now, asylum seekers in Germany have been distributed between the country’s 16 federal states according to an agreement that considers wealth and population size, Poutvaara noted, and states generally send them to various towns and cities based on population.
The economic researcher, who heads the Centre for Migration and Development Economics at the institute, said job vacancies should be included as a further factor at both state- and district-level decisions.
Politically, however, that idea is likely to face headwinds, as it means areas of the country with stronger local labour markets would have to accept a higher proportion of asylum seekers.
Poutvaara said he would not factor far-right political support in the distribution calculations, however, as doing so might only provide further motivation for people who oppose refugees to vote for far-right parties.
